As the 2025 MotoGP season approaches, Raul Fernandez finds himself at a crossroads. Since his debut in 2022, the Spaniard has struggled to live up to the hype that surrounded his Moto2 success. Excuses have often softened the blow—underperforming KTM machinery in 2022, outdated Aprilia equipment in 2023, and the mid-season RS-GP23 handicap in 2024. But in his fourth MotoGP season, there are no more justifications.
Fernandez now has a factory-spec RS-GP25, the same bike as Jorge Martin and Marco Bezzecchi, developed with serious title ambitions. Moreover, for the first time, he faces a less experienced teammate in Moto2 champion Ai Ogura. Unlike his past comparisons with Miguel Oliveira—who outperformed him despite missing five races—this season, the expectation is clear: he must establish himself as the team leader at Trackhouse Aprilia.
The real question is whether Fernandez can consistently break into the top 10, something he only managed eight times in 2024. Aprilia has proven capable of challenging Ducati in the early part of a season, but Fernandez has yet to show he can capitalize on a competitive package. If he continues to linger outside the top 15 while Martin and Bezzecchi fight for podiums, his MotoGP future will be under serious threat.
With no substantial improvements over three years, it’s hard to expect a sudden transformation. If Ogura outperforms him as a rookie, Fernandez’s career trajectory could take a major hit. Realistically, another finish between P14-P16 seems likely, barring a breakthrough.
